Capital Markets: Observations & Insights

VI

Cheaper Than You Think Valuation

I • One good way to incorporate interest rates into valuation is to calculate investors’ required rate of return above the prevailing risk-free interest rate ‒ Using the so-called Equity Risk Premium shows stocks are attractively valued relative to their historical average

II

Equity Risk Premiums Show Stocks Are Inexpensive

US World

III

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9%

Cheaper

IV

More Expensive

V

Estimated Equity Risk Premium

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

VI

Source: Goldman Sachs. Note: The market implied equity risk premium (ERP) is the rate that at each point in time makes the theoretical value from GS Dividend Discount Model equal to the observed market price. U.S. equities are represented by the S&P 500. World equities are represented by a weighted average of MSCI Asia Pac ex-Japan (20%), TOPIX (10%), Stoxx 600 (30%), and S&P 500 (40%).

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