Capital Markets: Observations & Insights

I

It’s the Economy The Election

I • The economy may be a good indicator of whether the incumbent will be re-elected ‒ No recession in the preceding two years has historically meant successful re-election

Recession in Past Two Years?

Year

Candidate

Re-Elected?

II

2012

Obama

2004

GW Bush

1996

Clinton

III

X

1992

GH Bush

1984

Reagan

X X

1980

Carter

1976

Ford

IV

1972

Nixon

1964

Johnson

1956

Eisenhower

1948

Truman

V

1944

Roosevelt

1940

Roosevelt

1936

Roosevelt

X

1932

Hoover

VI

Source: Bruce Mehlman: The Roaring 2020s and Alger.

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