Capital Markets: Observations & Insights
More Workers Available?
• However, the ratio of employed to total population is low relative to historical economic peaks ‒ Suggests worker availability may dampen inflation and keep the Fed at bay
• The traditional unemployment rate indicates an economy operating at full capacity ‒ Implies higher inflation and higher interest rates on the way
…But Employed / Population Indicates Slack
The Official Unemployment Rate Is Low…
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Shaded regions indicate U.S. recessions. Quarterly data through 2018.
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