Capital Markets: Observations & Insights
Better to Be Behind? Fundamentals
• The output gap measures economic output relative to potential, with a lower output gap indicating more growth left in the cycle • While most major regions are at or near potential output, some, such as Europe, are further behind the U.S.
U.S. Output Gap
Source: FactSet and Oxford Economics as of 3/31/19. Shaded regions indicate U.S. recessions.
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