Capital Markets: Observations & Insights

Cycles Have Been Lasting Longer ​ Birthday Wishes

• U.S. economic expansions have been increasing in duration. Driving factors include: ‒ Increased fiscal and monetary intervention (e.g., tax cuts/spending and assertive Fed)

‒ Structural changes in the economy (e.g., larger proportion of services) ‒ Technological advances (e.g., improved inventory management)

Age of U.S. Economic Expansions

12

10

8

6

4

Years of Expansion

2

0

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Source: FactSet and Alger. Note: double-dip recession in early 1980s accounted for as one recession.

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