Capital Markets: Observations & Insights

​ Birthday Wishes

More Workers Available?

• However, the ratio of employed to total eligible population is low relative to historical economic peaks ‒ Suggests worker availability may dampen inflation and keep the Fed at bay

• The traditional unemployment rate indicates an economy operating at full capacity ‒ Implies higher inflation and higher interest rates on the way

…But Employed / Population Indicates Slack

The Official Unemployment Rate Is Low…

65%

12%

63%

10%

61%

8%

59%

6%

57%

4%

55%

2%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Shaded regions indicate U.S. recessions. Quarterly data through 2018.

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