Capital Markets: Observations & Insights

Follow the Leader Birthday Wishes

• The Leading Economic Index is a good indicator of future economic growth or lack thereof

• Historically, it has declined on a year-over-year basis leading up to a recession

• Currently, it is rising, indicating continued economic growth, albeit at a slower pace

Leading Economic Index Prior to U.S. Recessions Year-over-year % Change

3.0%

Leading economic index

does not indicate recession

-1.3% -1.0%

-1.6%

-2.0%

-4.2%

Average is -3.4%

-5.8%

-7.7%

Jul '81

Jul '90

Jan '80

Mar '01

Current

Dec '69

Nov '73

Dec '07

Source: The Conference Board and Alger analysis as of March 2019

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