Capital Markets: Observations and Insights Autumn 2019

​ The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly


The Good – Data Improving

• Economic data points have begun to improve with lower interest rates boosting housing measures like home sales and refinancings while bank lending and money supply have also accelerated

‒ The result is economic data is coming in better relative to expectations

Bloomberg Economic Surprise Index


Positive Surprises



Economic data has begun to surprise to the upside





Negative Surprises



Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19

Source: Bloomberg as of September 2019. The Bloomberg Economic Surprise Index shows the degree to which economic analysts under- or over-estimate the trends in the business cycle. The surprise element is defined as the percentage (or percentage point) difference between analyst forecasts and the published value of economic data releases.

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