Capital Markets: Observations and Insights Autumn 2019

​ The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

ECONOMY

The Bad – Dragged Down?

• Weakness outside of the U.S. combined with significant trade issues are weighing on U.S. exports, threatening to drag down overall U.S. growth

Moderating International Industrial Production…

…and Trade Issues Driving Weak U.S. Exports

70

10%

8%

>50 Growing

60

6%

4%

China

50

2%

0%

Japan

40

-2%

<50 Declining

Europe

-4%

U.S. New Export Orders

30

Year-Over-Year Growth

-6%

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jan-18

Jan-19

Mar-18

Mar-19

Nov-18

Sep-18

Sep-19

May-18

May-19

Source: FactSet and Institute for Supply Management.

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