Capital Markets: Observations and Insights Autumn 2019

​ Additional Insights

INSIGHTS

Election by the Numbers

• Over the past half century in presidential elections involving incumbents, a strong correlation has existed between disposable income growth and percentage of votes won • Historically, real per capita disposable income growth of nearly 2% or more has been needed for reelection, which is currently where it is running

U.S. Reelection Campaigns

70%

Johnson

Nixon

60%

Reagan

Winning Campaigns

Clinton

Current

GW Bush

Obama

50%

% of Two-Party Vote

GH Bush

Losing Campaigns

Carter

40%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%

Real Per Capita Disposable Income Growth

Source: Strategas and Alger. Historical income growth is December to October of election year, annualized, while current data point is YoY growth for August 2019.

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