Capital Markets: Observations and Insights Autumn 2019
Additional Insights
INSIGHTS
Election by the Numbers
• Over the past half century in presidential elections involving incumbents, a strong correlation has existed between disposable income growth and percentage of votes won • Historically, real per capita disposable income growth of nearly 2% or more has been needed for reelection, which is currently where it is running
U.S. Reelection Campaigns
70%
Johnson
Nixon
60%
Reagan
Winning Campaigns
Clinton
Current
GW Bush
Obama
50%
% of Two-Party Vote
GH Bush
Losing Campaigns
Carter
40%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%
Real Per Capita Disposable Income Growth
Source: Strategas and Alger. Historical income growth is December to October of election year, annualized, while current data point is YoY growth for August 2019.
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