Capital Markets: Observations and Insights

​ Additional Insights

INSIGHTS

Election by the Numbers

• Over the past half century in presidential elections involving incumbents, a strong correlation has existed between disposable income growth and percentage of votes won • Historically, disposable income growth of nearly 2% has been needed for re-election, which is currently where it is running

U.S. Re-Election Campaigns

70%

Johnson

Nixon

60%

Reagan

Winning Campaigns

Clinton

GW Bush

Obama

50%

Current

% of Two-Party Vote

GH Bush

Losing Campaigns

Carter

40%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%

Real Disposable Income Growth

Source: Strategas and Alger. Historical income growth is December to October of election year, annualized, while current data point is YoY growth for May 2019.

Page 27