Capital Markets Summer 2020

I

Efficiency → Reliability Lasting Change

• We believe global supply chains, built for efficiency and dependent on international trade, are likely to become more domestically oriented to ensure reliability • Faster lead times and less geopolitical risk will ensure better customer service and in some cases national security (e.g., medical supplies and rare earths)

I

II

‒ Technologies such as automation, robotics, and 3-D printing will enable this change

Global Trade Falls Off a Cliff

130

III

Global trade has stagnated since 2018 and declined in this year’s recession

125

120

IV

115

110

V

105

100 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 CPB World Trade Monitor Volume

VI

Source: Netherlands Central Planning Bureau. The CPB World Trade Monitor brings together, aggregates, and summarizes worldwide monthly data on international trade and industrial production. Its purpose is to report monthly developments in trade and production at the earliest possible date, covering a sample of countries as large as possible.

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