Capital Markets Summer 2022: Revealing Recession Patterns

III

Supply Chain Pressures Easing Economic Crosscurrents

• Consensus assumes that inflation needs to moderate via demand weakness but what if supply constraints ease?

I

‒ That could help lower inflation and potentially cause the Fed to be less aggressive

II

Global Supply Chain Pressures Easing

5

III

4

Tighter

3

IV

2

1

0 Global Supply Chain Pressure Index

V

Looser

-1

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Liberty Street Economics. The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) is global measure that encompasses several indicators used to capture supply chain disruptions. Consensus is earnings estimates as determined by a consensus of analysts at financial services firms and provided by FactSet. As of 6/30/22.

19