Capital Markets Summer 2022: Revealing Recession Patterns

III

Still Tight Labor Market Economic Crosscurrents

• The labor market is one of the key drivers for Fed tightening and it remains strong

I

• Wage growth has accelerated – supporting spending but also inflation

II

Still Elevated Job Openings…

…Driving Strong Wage Growth

12

6%

III

Many more job openings than unemployed people

Highest in over 25 years

10

5%

IV

8

4%

6

3%

V

4

2%

U.S. Median Wage Growth

U.S. Job Openings (Millions)

2

1%

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Note that wage growth is reported as a 3-month moving average. As of 5/31/22.

20