Capital Markets Summer 2022: Revealing Recession Patterns

I

Economic Bottom Signals Revealing Recession Patterns

• Stock market troughs have typically occurred within weeks of jobless claims peaking

I

Weeks Between S&P 500 Bottom and Jobless Claim Peak

II

Stocks bottom first

23

15

7

7

III

3

2

(5)

Average

IV

Jobless claims peak first

(46)

V

Apr-1970 Jan-1975 May-1980 Oct-1982 Mar-1991 Nov-2001 Mar-2009 Apr-2020

Peak in Weekly Jobless Claims

Source: Goldman Sachs.

6