Capital Markets: Winter 2019
Sanguine About Slowing
Winter 2019
Capital Markets: Observations and Insights Capital Markets: Observations and Insights Sanguine About Slowing
Sanguine About Slowing
Sanguine: being optimistic, especially in an apparently difficult situation.
Peak growth is probably behind us. Earnings and GDP growth are unlikely to reach new heights this cycle, but does that mean the expansion is ending? No, not in our view. There have been many times in the past few decades, and even in this expansion, when economic growth has slowed materially without ending the economic cycle or equity bull market. The best example of a slowing but still growing economy may come from the mid-1990s. In 1994, the economy was growing robustly as the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy. While U.S. economic growth slowed significantly in 1995, earnings grew and the U.S. equity market turned in a strong year. More recently, economic growth slowed materially in 2016, while stocks posted solid, albeit varied, returns. While we are positive on equities in general in this environment, our research shows that there are always areas of the economy and innovative companies that can grow irrespective of economic conditions. Those companies and industries are, and always have been, our focus.
Daniel C. Chung, CFA Chief Executive Officer Chief Investment Officer
Brad Neuman, CFA Senior Vice President Director of Market Strategy
Page 1
Key Observations
• While pessimism abounds and equities are discounting a significant economic slowdown, we believe stocks are likely to post solid long-term returns , particularly relative to other asset classes • Monetary conditions have tightened but we believe equities and the economy should be able to absorb the moderate increase in interest rates • Trade policy issues are weighing on global economic growth and while there could be more pain to come, we believe the powerful trend toward lower tariffs and more trade will ultimately prevail
Table of Contents
Sanguine About Slowing
Pages 3-8
Performance
Pages 9-14
Fundamentals
Pages 15-23
Valuation
Pages 24-28
Page 2
Prospering Through a Slowdown Sanguine About Slowing
• Economic growth is likely to decelerate in 2019 but that does not necessarily mean weak equity returns ‒ In the past 35 years, there have been 15 years when U.S. GDP growth materially slowed, with the vast majority generating positive U.S. stock returns
‒ Returns were negative only when accompanied by a recession (1990, 2000/2001, 2008)
S&P 500 Returns
Years When GDP Growth Stays Stable or Improves
Years When GDP Growth Materially Slows
-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
History suggests that slowing GDP growth is not necessarily bad for equities
Source: FactSet, Alger. Note: Material slowing of GDP is defined as 50bps or more of a negative change in the annual real GDP growth rate.
Page 3
Tailwinds Meet Headwinds Sanguine About Slowing
• While the Federal Reserve’s tightening monetary policy is a headwind to economic growth
• Fiscal stimulus remains a tailwind with the cumulative benefit continuing to build…
Cumulative GDP Boost from 2017 Tax Act
Estimated GDP Impact of 100bps Increase in the Federal Funds Rate
1.0%
3%
0.9%
0.9%
0.8%
2%
0.6%
0.3%
1%
U.S. Real GDP Growth
0%
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Months After Increase
Source: Tax Act impact is from CBO, based on fiscal years ending in September. Effect of 100bps increase in Fed Funds rate is based on impact shown in FRB/US Model (November 2014 VAR version).
Page 4
Sanguine About Slowing
Not Signaling Recession
• Recent economic statistics are materially stronger than those prior to previous recessions
• Relevant metrics indicate continued expansion
= Recessionary
= Expansionary
Data Preceding U.S. Recessions
Leading Economic Indicator YoY
Yield Curve (Min Past 18- Months)
ISM Manufacturing New Orders
Jobless Claims YoY
Real Fed Funds Rate
Capacity Utilization
-2.1%
-0.4%
48.0
3.1%
85.5%
10.2%
December 1969
-1.6%
-1.4%
65.2
4.4%
88.7%
1.4%
November 1973
-5.8%
-1.7%
47.1
6.0%
84.3%
15.9%
January 1980
-1.6%
-1.9%
47.6
10.1%
80.5%
-21.4%
July 1981
-0.9%
0.0%
46.7
3.9%
82.8%
8.0%
July 1990
-7.6%
-0.6%
41.5
3.1%
77.9%
41.8%
March 2001
-4.6%
-0.6%
46.5
2.0%
81.1%
7.8%
December 2007
-3.5%
-0.9%
48.9
4.7%
83.0%
9.1%
Average
5.2%
0.2%
51.1
0.6%
78.5%
-8.5%
Present
Source: FactSet and Alger. Recessionary thresholds are as follows: Leading Economic Indicator YoY <0.0%; Yield Curve (10 year minus 3 month) <0.0% in past 18 months; ISM Manufacturing New Orders <50; Real Federal Funds Rate >1.75%; Capacity Utilization >80%; Jobless Claims >0%.
Page 5
Sanguine About Slowing
A Silver Lining?
• Historically, returns have been robust after such episodes ‒ Annual returns have averaged 19% after double-digit declines in P/E
• Equity valuations declined dramatically in 2018
‒ Second largest decline in past three decades
Change in S&P 500 P/E
Double-Digit S&P 500 P/E Declines
40%
P/E Change Following Year Return
50%
30%
40%
20%
30%
10%
20%
0%
10%
-10%
0%
-20%
-10%
-21%
-30%
-20%
-30%
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
1987 1994 2000 2002 2005 2008 2018
Source: FactSet and Alger. Data is 1986-2018.
Page 6
Sanguine About Slowing
What Outperforms in a Slowdown?
• Growth equities typically outperform when overall EPS growth decelerates, likely because:
‒ Growth equities are less cyclical
‒ Value stocks have more operational and financial leverage
‒ Higher growth is more scarce
Equity Returns in Periods of Profit Deceleration (1982-2018)
15.8%
Growth has historically
outperformed Value when fundamentals decelerate
14.1%
Russell 1000 Growth
Russell 1000 Value
Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch Quantitative Strategy. Median data for periods identified are Jun 1984-Dec 1985, Jun 1988-Dec 1991, Mar 1995-Sep 1998, Mar 2000-Dec 2001, Dec 2003-Jun 2005, Mar 2006-Mar 2009, Jun 2010-Sep 2012, and Dec 2013-Dec 2015.
Page 7
Sanguine About Slowing
Innovation Through Economic Cycles
• Innovation can flourish even if the economy languishes
‒ History shows that there are areas of innovation and growth throughout recessions, depressions and panics over the past 150 years*
Personal Computer Penetration Grew Through Early ‘90s Recession
Global Smartphone Subscribers Grew Through Global Financial Crisis
U.S. Real GDP Index U.S. PC Index Recession
Global Real GDP Index Global Smartphone Subscriber Index Recession
160
500
+335%
+43%
400
140
300
120
200
+4%
100
+9%
100
80
0
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: Diego Comin and Bart Hobijn “Historical Cross Country Technology Adoption Dataset”; U.S. Department of Transportation; GSM Association; FactSet . Each graph is indexed to 100. *See Alger’s white paper “The Enduring Force of Innovation.”
Page 8
Investors Play Defense Performance
• In a severe equity market correction in 4Q18, defensive and less cyclical sectors performed best, highly impacting 2018 returns
4Q18 Returns (%)
2018 Returns (%)
U.S.
World
10
U.S.
World
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
-20
-20
-25
Energy
Utilities
Energy
Utilities
Materials
Materials
Financials
Industrials
Financials
Industrials
Technology
Real Estate
Health Care
Real Estate
Technology
Health Care
Consumer Staples
Consumer Staples
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Discretionary
Communication Services
Communication Services
Source: FactSet as of 12/31/18. U.S. represented by S&P 500 and World represented by MSCI AC World Index in USD.
Page 9
Value Has Lagged Performance
• In 2018, higher yielding large cap stocks generally outperformed, while more economically sensitive Value equities underperformed
4Q18 Excess Return (%)
2018 Excess Return (%)
2.2 2.0
1.3
1.4 1.1
0.9
0.4
0.3
-0.2 -0.2
-0.6
-1.0 -1.2 -1.4 -1.5 -1.5
-1.5 -1.5 -1.8
-2.3
-2.2
-5.8
Market Cap
Book / Price
EPS Growth
Debt / Equity
Market Cap
Book / Price
Price Volatility
EPS Growth
Dividend Yield
Debt / Equity
Trading Activity
Earnings / Price
Revenue / Price
Price Volatility
Dividend Yield
Relative Strength
Trading Activity
Earnings / Price
Revenue / Price
Relative Strength
Earnings Variability
Earnings Variability
Source: FactSet as of 12/31/18 using Northfield defined quantitative factors for the Northfield broad U.S. market database.
Page 10
Valuation Correction Offsets Earnings Growth Performance
Total Return = Dividend Yield + EPS Growth +/- P/E Change
MSCI All Country World Index ex-USA
S&P 500
Dividend
EPS Growth*
P/E Change
Dividend
EPS Growth*
P/E Change
35%
20%
25%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
Sentiment Collapse
Sentiment Collapse
-10%
-15%
-25%
-20%
Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18
Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18
12- Month Total Return:
12- Month Total Return:
16%
33%
14%
1%
12%
22%
-4%
17%
21%
6%
2%
7%
19%
-10%
Source: FactSet as of 12/31/18. *Based on consensus estimates of next 12-month EPS. Actual earnings per share might be materially different than shown. MSCI ACWI ex-US performance based on local currency.
Page 11
Performance
Structural Issues Driving Growth vs. Value
• Growth stocks have dramatically outperformed (+44%) Value stocks over the past decade
• The culprit for value investors has been the very weak performance of buying low P/B stocks, while low P/E strategies have fared much better • Book value, used heavily in index classification of Growth vs. Value, may no longer be as relevant given changing business models, e.g., R&D is not capitalized in book value
120
Style classification too dependent upon flawed book value
P/E
100
80
P/B
Russell 1000 Value / Growth
60
40
20
Total Return Index
0
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
Source: FactSet as of 12/31/18. Price-to-earnings and price-to-book returns are based on the E/P and B/P Northfield factors for the Northfield broad U.S. market database.
Page 12
Performance
Innovative Companies Often Outperform
• Studies have shown, and our research demonstrates, that the most innovative companies grow their sales, earnings, and stock prices faster*
Innovation Drives Excess Performance 20 Years
150%
Most Innovative +4% per year
100%
50%
0%
Cumulative Performance
Least Innovative -1% per year
-50%
Source: FactSet. Most/least innovative stock excess performance is derived from highest and lowest S&P 1500 quintiles based on R&D as % of sales, normalized for market value, using one month returns for 20 years ending 10/31/18. * Baruch Lev and Suresh Radhakrishnan, “The Stock Market Valuation of R&D Leaders.”
Page 13
Performance
Has Active Relative Performance Troughed?
• As some of those factors reverse, active management, particularly Growth, has been doing better ‒ Interest rates no longer falling ‒ Market performance more subdued
• Powerful cyclical factors impact U.S. active relative performance: ‒ Interest rates/bond-like equities ‒ Small cap performance
‒ Overall market performance ‒ Non-U.S. stock performance
% of U.S. Active Managers Outperforming 2018
Active Relative Performance Is Cyclical
100%
Large Small
84%
80%
60%
59%
40%
32%
24%
20% % of Fund Assets Outperforming
0%
Growth
Value
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
2018
Source: Left chart: Nomura/Instinet, Joseph Mezrich and FactSet through 12/31/18. Fund performance is trailing five-year data of U.S. active equity mutual funds in existence for five years or more and part of the growth, growth & income, and income categories based on CRSP codes. Right chart: Bank of America Merrill Lynch U.S. Equity and U.S. Quant Strategy using Lipper data relative to Russell benchmarks through 12/31/18.
Page 14
The Upside of Being Slow Fundamentals
• Why has the current economic expansion lasted so long and when will it end?
‒ A big part of the answer is the depth of the recession that preceded it and the rate of the recovery thus far ‒ Economic recoveries of comparable length have had far more growth than the present one, suggesting a significant runway of economic expansion now
60%
1960
50%
1990
40%
1981
30%
Long runway to catch up?
1973
20%
1969
2001
Current
10%
0%
Real Cumulative GDP Growth
-10%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
Number of Quarters from Peak
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and Alger as of December 2018. Dates indicate beginning of measurement periods.
Page 15
Monetary Policy Is Not Restrictive Fundamentals
• Over the past half century, every U.S. recession has been preceded by a significantly positive real Fed Funds rate of 2% or higher
• In contrast, today we have a real Fed Funds rate of close to 0%
Real Federal Funds Rate
15%
10%
Today real short-term interest rates are far
5%
lower than what induced previous recessions
0%
-5%
-10%
1960
1962
1965
1967
1970
1972
1975
1977
1980
1982
1985
1987
1990
1992
1995
1997
2000
2002
2005
2007
2010
2012
2015
2017
Source: FactSet, through December 2018. Real Federal Funds rate is equal to the Federal Funds rate less the year-over-year change in the PCE Price Index ex-food and energy. Shaded regions denote U.S. recessions.
Page 16
Fundamentals
Leading Indicators Suggest Continued Expansion
• The LEI historically leads S&P 500 EPS by 6-18 months • The increase in the LEI suggests EPS should continue growing
• Typically, changes in the Leading Economic Index (LEI) have preceded changes in economic growth • The rate of change of the LEI implies solid, albeit slowing, economic growth
15%
8%
$190
10%
6%
110
$170
5%
4%
Real GDP Growth YoY
100
$150
0%
2%
S&P 500 EPS
18 Month Lead
$130
-5%
0%
90
$110
-10%
-2%
$90
-15%
-4%
80
Leading Economic Index
-20%
-6%
$70
Leading Economic Index YoY
-25%
-8%
70
$50
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Source: FactSet, Conference Board. EPS estimates based on next 12-months consensus.
Page 17
Fundamentals
U.S. Debt Service Is Historically Low
• Despite higher levels of debt as a % of GDP, the U.S. non-financial private sector debt service ratio is much lower than in the past two recessions ‒ Because more than 80% of U.S. consumer and business debt is fixed, higher interest rates should not have a dramatic impact on service costs
U.S. Debt Service Ratio
20%
18%
Debt service ratio indicates households and corporations are not burdened by debt payments
16%
14%
12%
10%
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Source: Bank for International Settlements, December 2018. Debt Service Ratio is the share of income used for interest payments and amortizations in the non-financial private sector. Shaded regions indicate recessions.
Page 18
Better to Be Behind? Fundamentals
• The output gap measures economic output relative to potential, with a lower output gap indicating more growth left in the cycle • While most major regions are at or near potential output, some, such as Japan and Europe, are further behind the U.S.
U.S. Output Gap
Source: FactSet and Oxford Economics. Shaded regions indicate U.S. recessions.
Page 19
Fundamentals
China Is Stimulating
• Chinese growth has been a key driver in volatility of global equities
• A trade deal would go a long way to help the decelerating Chinese economy but monetary policy may pick up some of the burden until then
Will easing work again?
5.5%
30%
Lower rates helped equities bottom
20%
4.5%
S&P 500 YoY
10%
0%
3.5%
China Interest Rate
-10%
2.5%
-20%
Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19
Source: FactSet. China interest rate is SHIBOR one year rate.
Page 20
A Powerful Trend Fundamentals
• There have been various periods in history marked by fears of “trade wars” but ultimately countries have acted rationally and reduced trade barriers • While there may be more pain to come, we believe the powerful trend toward lower tariffs and more trade will prevail
• In the meantime, opportunities will likely arise for active management
U.S. Tariff Rates
U.S. Gross International Trade % of GDP
8%
35%
30%
Japanese auto quotas imposed
6%
25%
20%
4%
Bush steel tariffs
15%
10%
2%
Chicken Tax / European trade dispute
5%
Time magazine cover on “Trade Wars”
0%
0%
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
Source: U.S. International Trade Commission, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Alger. Tariffs are calculated as duties collected divided by total imports.
Page 21
Smaller Capitalization Stocks Poised to Outperform Fundamentals
• Compelling valuation : Small cap P/E multiple premium is the lowest in a decade
• Stronger fundamentals : Estimated small cap EPS growth for ‘19 & ‘20 is double that of large cap
• More levered to domestic economy : U.S. small caps have less exposure to international economies
• Rising interest rates : Small caps have historically outperformed large caps in rising rate environments
Price-to-Earnings Russell 2000 / Russell 1000
Earnings Per Share
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
R2000 R1000
160
Small caps growing faster
140
120
Median
EPS Indexed to 100
100
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2018
2019
2020
Source: FactSet as of December 2018 . EPS for 2019-2020 are consensus estimates and actual earnings per share might be materially different than shown.
Page 22
Fundamentals
The Growth Advantage
• Three variables drive P/E multiples: growth, return on capital, and risk
• As compared to the Russell 1000 Value Index, the Russell 1000 Growth Index has higher expected EPS growth, higher return on equity, and lower risk in the form of better balance sheets
Stronger Growth
Higher Returns
Lower Risk
R1000G R1000V
R1000G R1000V
R1000G R1000V
2.6x
16.4%
28.6%
9.5%
13.0%
1.0x
Long-Term EPS Growth
Return on Equity
Net Debt / EBITDA
Source: FactSet as of 12/31/18. Growth represents consensus long-term analyst estimates and actual future EPS growth rates might be materially different than the forecasts shown.
Page 23
Stocks Are Cheap Relative to Bonds Valuation
• Historically, the “earnings yield” of equities (inverse of the P/E) has been just modestly above 10-year Treasury yields • Since the Global Financial Crisis, however, that spread has widened out and has yet to normalize, making equities attractive relative to bonds
S&P 500 EPS Yield
Treasury Bond Yield
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
Spread of >400bps indicates stocks are attractive relative to bonds
6%
4%
2%
0%
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
2018
Source: FactSet, Federal Reserve, and S&P, as of 12/31/18.
Page 24
Bargains Abound Valuation
• Sector valuation varies with most trading at discounts to their historical median
P/E Relative to 20-Year Median
12%
6%
0%
0%
-1%
-3%
-5%
-9%
-10% -11%
-15% -16%
Energy
Utilities
S&P 500
Materials
Financials
Industrials
Health Care
Real Estate
Consumer Staples
Information Technology
Consumer Discretionary
Communication Services
Source: FactSet and UBS, based on S&P 500 Index as of 12/31/18. The Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, and Technology sectors’ historical data have been restated to reflect September 2018 changes to the GICS sector classifications. Note that Consumer Discretionary ex-Internet Retail is an 11% discount to its 20-year median.
Page 25
Growth and Value Near Equilibrium Valuation
• Despite their outperformance over the past several years, Growth stocks are not very expensive compared to their Value equity counterparts relative to expected growth rates or history
Russell 1000 Growth vs. Russell 1000 Value PEG Ratio (P/E Divided by Long-Term Growth Rate)
Russell 1000 Growth Relative to Russell 1000 Value P/E
1.3x
Current premium is in-line relative to history
Growth stocks are cheaper relative to long-term growth
43%
1.1x
Median
Russell 1000 Value
Russell 1000 Growth
Source: FactSet, Bank of America as of 12/31/18.
Page 26
Global Equity Multiples Inexpensive Valuation
• Price-to-earnings multiples around the world are below their historical average, despite very low global interest rates
= current
Price-to-Earnings Multiple +/- 2 Standard Deviations from 15-Year Average
= +2 std dev
20x
= average
= -2 std dev
15x
EM is least expensive in
10x
absolute terms while EAFE is cheapest relative to history
5x
S&P 500 MSCI AC World MSCI EAFE MSCI EM
Z-Score (Standard Deviations Above/Below Mean)
(0.1)
(0.4)
(0.8)
(0.4)
Source: FactSet. Monthly estimates over past 15 years ending 12/31/18. MSCI AC World represents developed and emerging markets globally. MSCI EAFE represents developed countries in Europe, Australasia and the Far East. MSCI EM represents emerging markets globally. A Z-Score is the number of standard deviations a data point is from the mean. A z-score equal to zero, it is on the mean. If a z-score is equal to +1, it is 1 standard deviation above the mean. Standard deviation measures how much the data has deviated from its average. If data has a high standard deviation, there is large deviation from its mean, and vice versa. Standard deviation is generally used to compare the relative volatility of data sets.
Page 27
Valuation Framework for Forecasting Returns
• There is a strong relationship between starting valuations and ensuing 10-year returns
• Current valuations suggest equities may post strong returns over the coming decade, beating other asset classes such as fixed income
S&P 500 P/E vs. 10-Year Returns
Russell 1000 Growth P/E vs. 10-Year Returns
= month
= current
tech bubble
25%
25%
R² = 0.79 (0.85 ex-tech bubble)
R² = 0.84
20%
20%
15%
15%
10%
10%
5%
5%
0%
0%
-5%
-5%
-10%
-10%
5
10
15
20
25
30
5
10
15
20
25
S&P 500 10-Year Annualized Return
Russell 1000G 10-Year Annualized Return
Russell 1000 Growth Price/Earnings
S&P 500 Price/Earnings
Source: FactSet. Each dot represents the P/E during that month and the returns generated over the subsequent 10 years. The starting P/E ratio is the price divided by the next 12-month earnings per share estimate at the start of each 10-year period measured. Monthly data through December 2018 and beginning in January 1986 (S&P 500) and December 1978 (Russell 1000 Growth). The tech bubble, represented by the 10-year returns beginning in April 1987-March 1990 and ending in April 1997-March 2000, skewed the regression by resulting in higher returns for given valuations than the historical relationship would imply.
Page 28
Disclosure The views expressed are the views of Fred Alger Management, Inc. as of January 2019. Alger has used sources of information which it believes to be reliable; however, this publication is not intended to be and does not constitute investment advice. These views are subject to change at any time and they do not guarantee the future performance of the markets, any security, or any funds managed by Fred Alger Management, Inc. These views should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell securities. Individual securities or industries/sectors mentioned, if any, should be considered in the context of an overall portfolio and therefore reference to them should not be construed as a recommendation or offer to purchase or sell securities. References to or implications regarding the performance of an individual security or group of securities are not intended as an indication of the characteristics or performance of any specific sector, industry, security, group of securities, or a portfolio and are for illustrative purposes only.
Risk Disclosures : Investing in the stock market involves gains and losses and may not be suitable for all investors. Growth stocks tend to be more volatile than other stocks as the prices of growth stocks tend to be higher in relation to their companies’ earnings and may be more sensitive to market, political and economic developments.
The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index generally representative of the U.S. stock market without regard to company size. The S&P Composite 1500 is an unmanaged index that covers approximately 90% of the U.S. market capitalization. The Russell 1000® Growth Index is an unmanaged index designed to measure the performance of the largest 1000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 1000 Value Index measures the performance of those Russell 1000 companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The Russell 2000 Growth Index is an unmanaged index generally representative of common stocks designed to track performance of small-capitalization companies with greater than average growth orientation. The Russell 2000 Value Index is an unmanaged index generally representative of the small-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe and measures the performance of Russell 2000 companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The Russell 3000® Growth Index is an unmanaged index designed to measure the performance of those Russell 3000® Index companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 3000 Value Index is an unmanaged index generally representative of stocks from the Russell 3000 Index with lower price-to-book ratios and lower expected growth rates. The MSCI ACWI Index (gross) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed and emerging markets. The MSCI ACWI consists of 45 country indices comprising 24 developed and 21 emerging market country indices. The MSCI ACWI ex USA Index (gross) captures large and mid cap representation across 23 of 24 Developed Markets (DM) countries excluding the US) and 23 Emerging Markets (EM) countries. The index covers approximately 85% of the global equity opportunity set outside the US. The indices presented are provided for illustrative purposes, reflect the reinvestment of dividends and do not assess fees and expenses that would have the effect of reducing returns. Investors cannot invest directly in any index. The index performance does not represent the returns of any portfolio advised by Fred Alger Management, Inc. and actual client results might differ materially than the indices shown. Note that past performance is no guarantee of future results. Comparison to a different index might have materially different results than those shown. Frank Russell Company (“Russell”) is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. Russell ® is a trademark of Frank Russell Company. Neither Russell nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the Russell Indexes and / or Russell ratings or underlying data and no party may rely on any Russell Indexes and / or Russell ratings and / or underlying data contained in this communication. No further distribution of Russell Data is permitted without Russell’s express written consent. Russell does not promote, sponsor or endorse the content of this communication. ALCAPPRESSPR-0119 Fred Alger Management, Inc. • 360 Park Avenue South, New York, NY 10010 • 800.992.3863 • www.alger.com Page 29
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