Capital Markets: Observations and Insights Autumn 2019
Autumn 2019
Autumn 2019
Capital Markets: Observations and Insights Capital Markets: Observations and Insights Loving to Lend or Opting to Own?
Loving to Lend or Opting to Own?
“I would much rather own many common stocks than bonds.” – Warren Buffett*
The combination of interest rates declining to near historic lows and the never-ending news cycle attempting to guess what the Federal Reserve will do seems to have investors focused on short-term speculation. Such behavior appears to manifest itself in fund flows gushing into bonds and out of equities. However, U.S. equities have rarely been this cheap relative to bonds, as we detail in the following pages. Interest rates may have further to fall if the U.S. follows Europe and Japan, but we believe the upside is likely limited and the lower rates go, the more bonds are likely to underperform stocks over the long term. In this environment, we believe the choice between stocks and bonds is straightforward. In our view, equity portfolios comprised of companies with significant free cash flow yields and the potential for strong long-term growth are more attractive than Treasury bonds with miniscule yields and the prospect of no cash flow growth. While the herd of investors clamors to pay to lend trillions of dollars, therefore chasing bonds higher and yields lower, count us as contrarians and passionate equity investors who see the potential reward in high quality growth companies over the long term. We prefer owning to lending.
Daniel C. Chung, CFA Chief Executive Officer Chief Investment Officer
Brad Neuman, CFA Senior Vice President Director of Market Strategy
Page 1
Key Observations and Themes
Lending vs. Owning With interest rates so low, stocks look attractive relative to bonds. We believe equities will outperform fixed income over the long term. Accelerating Innovation Innovation is speeding up and changing the way the economy behaves, increasingly driving stock performance. Style Wars Powerful structural forces have caused Growth to diverge from Value. Investors looking for a reversion to the mean may be disappointed. Reframing Risk Traditionally accepted metrics are part of an imperfect shorthand intended to capture fundamental risk; focus on fundamental durability. Economic Good, Bad & Ugly Structurally, we believe the U.S. economy is sound but policy tailwinds are confronting weak confidence and slowing international growth.
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Additional Insights A framework for handicapping the U.S. presidential election and more.
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Page 2
Paying to Lend Lending vs. Owning
LENDING vs. OWNING
• Weakening global economic activity, due in part to the trade war along with secularly low inflation, has weighed on interest rates
Falling Global Rates
Worldwide Negative Yielding Debt
Germany
U.S.
Japan U.K.
$16
3%
$12
2%
$8
1%
Trillions
$4
0%
$0
-1%
Jun-14
Jun-17
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jul-19
Mar-15
Mar-18
Dec-15
Dec-18
Sep-16
Sep-19
Apr-17
Oct-17
Apr-18
Oct-18
Apr-19
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Source: FactSet and Bloomberg as of September 2019. Global rates are 10-year government bond yields.
Page 3
Chasing Yield and Pursuing Safety Lending vs. Owning
LENDING vs. OWNING
• Despite very low interest rates, investors have been allocating away from equities and into bonds as well as cash
Investors Have Plowed Money into Bonds
…And into Cash
1,600
Stocks
Bonds
1,400
1,000
1,200
800
1,000
600
800
400
600
200
($ billions)
($ billions)
400
0
200
Cumulative Fund Flow
-200
Retail Money Market Funds
0
Jun-17
Jun-18
Jun-19
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Mar-17
Mar-18
Mar-19
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Sep-16
Sep-17
Sep-18
Sep-19
Source: Morningstar, Investment Company Institute, Alger. Bond flows include taxable and municipals and stock flows include U.S. equity, international equity and sector funds —all include passive and ETF flows.
Page 4
Putting More Cash in Your Pocket Lending vs. Owning
LENDING vs. OWNING
• Equity dividend yields are now greater than 10-year Treasury yields, and stocks are likely to distribute more cash to investors over time ‒ Over 10-year periods in the past half century, the S&P 500 dividend has grown an average of nearly 6% annually or over 70%, while a Treasury bond coupon does not grow
…But Stock Dividends Can Grow!
Similar Yields…
S&P 500 Div Yield 10-Yr Treasury Yield
S&P 500 Dividend Treasury Bond Coupon
10% 12% 14% 16%
10%
8%
6%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
Rolling 10-Yr Annual Growth
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
2018
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
2018
Source: FactSet, Robert Shiller, Alger.
Page 5
Searching for Yield Lending vs. Owning
LENDING vs. OWNING
• Stocks’ total “yield,” which accounts for all of the cash that companies “return” to investors and comprises dividends plus share repurchases, is attractive relative to bonds and particularly compelling relative to history
Total Equity “Yield”
S&P 500 Total “Yield” Less BAA Bond Yield
Repurchases Dividend
4%
5.4%
2%
1.9%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
3.5%
-8%
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
S&P 500
Source: FactSet and Alger through August 2019.
Page 6
An Easy Choice? Lending vs. Owning
LENDING vs. OWNING
• Investors are paying a big premium for the safety of Treasuries relative to equities but how risky are stock fundamentals over the long term? ‒ Over 10-year periods in the past half century, S&P 500 EPS has grown an average of nearly 7% annually, or almost 90%, while a Treasury bond coupon does not grow
Stock P/E Is Attractive Relative to Treasuries…
…And Equity EPS Can Grow!
S&P 500 P/E 10-Yr Treasury "P/E"
S&P 500 EPS Treasury Bond Coupon
70x
-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%
60x
50x
40x
30x
20x
10x
0x
Rolling 10-Yr Annual Growth
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
2018
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
2018
Source: FactSet, Robert Shiller, Alger. Notes: periods used were annual. Treasury “P/E” is inverse of yield to maturity. Earnings per share (EPS) is the portion of a company's earnings or profit allocated to each share of common stock.
Page 7
Cheaper Than You Think? Lending vs. Owning
LENDING vs. OWNING
• Calculating investors’ required rate of return above the prevailing risk-free interest rate is a good way of measuring the attractiveness of stocks relative to Treasury bonds ‒ Using the so-called Equity Risk Premium shows global stocks are about as cheap as they have been in the past couple of decades
High Equity Risk Premiums Show Stocks Are Cheap
US World
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9%
Cheaper
More Expensive
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Estimated Equity Risk Premium
Source: Goldman Sachs. Note: The market implied equity risk premium (ERP) is the rate that at each point in time makes the theoretical value from GS Dividend Discount Model equal to the observed market price. U.S. equities are represented by the S&P 500. World equities are represented by a weighted average of MSCI Asia Pac ex-Japan (20%), TOPIX (10%), Stoxx 600 (30%), and S&P 500 (40%).
Page 8
Many Happy Returns? Lending vs. Owning
LENDING vs. OWNING
• There is a strong relationship between starting valuation and ensuing 10-year returns for both stocks and bonds
‒ Current valuations suggest equities should outperform bonds over the coming decade
Treasury Bond Yield vs. U.S. Aggregate Bond 10-Year Returns
= month
S&P 500 P/E vs. 10-Year Returns
= current
25%
12%
R² = 0.90
R² = 0.84
20%
10%
15%
8%
10%
6%
5%
4%
0%
2%
-5%
0% 10-Year Annualized Return
5x
10x
15x
20x
25x
30x
1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10%
S&P 500 10-Year Annualized Return
S&P 500 Price/Earnings
Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond
10-Year Treasury Bond Yield
Source: FactSet. Each dot represents the P/E during that month and the returns generated over the subsequent 10 years. The starting P/E ratio is the price divided by the next 12- month earnings per share estimate at the start of each 10-year period measured. Monthly data through September 2019 and beginning in January 1986. R-squared is a statistical measure used to analyze how differences in one variable can be explained by the difference in a second variable. The performance data quoted represents past performance, which is not an indication or a guarantee of future results.
Page 9
Accelerating Innovation
INNOVATION
Stepping on the Gas
• Data has indicated that innovation is accelerating across many areas of the economy
• As a result, new products and services are diffusing through society faster, disrupting businesses at a greater pace
Years from Market Entry to 50% Penetration
Years to Reach 1 Billion Users
Source: Asymco, Visual Capitalist, company disclosures.
Page 10
Accelerating Innovation
INNOVATION
A New Era Emerges
• Research has shown that technological revolutions occur continuously about every half century and consist of five phases ‒ We believe we are in the irruptive phase of a new revolution, the Age of Connected Intelligence, when intelligent computing will be ubiquitous and pervasive
The Lifecycle of Technological Revolutions
Source: Carlota Perez, “Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital,” Edward Elgar Publishing, 2002; Alger.
Page 11
Accelerating Innovation
INNOVATION
A More Powerful Driver of Disruption
• Moore’s Law, the doubling of transistors on a microchip every two years, has been the driving force of the global digital revolution • Now a new exponential law for artificial intelligence (AI) is set to usher in even larger, more powerful changes in technology and living standards
Exponential Growth in the Training of Artificial Intelligence Programs
AI program training doubling every 3 to 5 months
Source: OpenAI.
Page 12
Innovation as Wealth Creator Accelerating Innovation
INNOVATION
• Studies have shown and our research demonstrates that the most innovative companies grow their sales, earnings, and stock prices faster*
Innovation Drives Excess Performance 10 Years
Most Innovative +4% per year
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
Least Innovative -4% per year
-40%
Cumulative Excess Return
-60%
Source: FactSet. Most/least innovative stock excess performance is derived from highest and lowest S&P 1500 quintiles based on R&D as % of sales, normalized for market value, using one month returns for 10 years ending 7/31/19. * Baruch Lev and Suresh Radhakrishnan, “The Stock Market Valuation of R&D Leaders.” The performance data quoted represents past performance, which is not an indication or a guarantee of future results.
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Style Divergence
STYLE WARS
Structural Issues Driving Growth vs. Value
• Despite a blip of a reversal in September, Growth stocks have dramatically outperformed Value stocks over the past decade (>35%) • The driver has been the very weak performance of the Price-to-Book valuation metric, which is used heavily in index classifications of Growth vs. Value stocks • As accounting fails to keep up with the changing economy, book value may no longer be as relevant (e.g., R&D is not capitalized in book value)
120
Style classification too dependent upon outdated book value
100
Low P/B
80
Russell 1000 Value / Growth
60
40
20
Total Return Index
0
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
Source: FactSet as of 9/30/19. Low price-to-book returns are based on the B/P Northfield factor for the Northfield broad U.S. market database. The performance data quoted represents past performance, which is not an indication or a guarantee of future results.
Page 14
Style Divergence
STYLE WARS
The Growth Advantage
• Three variables drive P/E multiples: growth, return on capital, and risk
• The Russell 1000 Growth Index has higher expected EPS growth, higher return on equity, and lower risk in the form of better balance sheets as compared to the Russell 1000 Value Index
Higher Returns
Stronger Growth
Lower Risk
Return on Equity
Net Debt/EBITDA
Long-Term EPS Growth
2.7x
32.0%
14.4%
0.9x
12.1%
7.8%
Russell 1000 Growth
Russell 1000 Value
Russell 1000 Growth
Russell 1000 Value
Russell 1000 Growth
Russell 1000 Value
Source: FactSet as of 9/30/19. Growth represents consensus long-term analyst estimates and actual future EPS growth rates might be materially different than the forecasts shown.
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Style Divergence
STYLE WARS
Growth and Value Near Equilibrium
• Despite their outperformance over the past several years, Growth stocks are not very expensive compared to their Value equity counterparts relative to expected growth rates or history
Russell 1000 Growth vs. Russell 1000 Value PEG Ratio (P/E Divided by Long-Term Growth Rate)
Russell 1000 Growth Relative to Russell 1000 Value P/E
225%
200%
1.8x
175%
150%
Growth stocks are cheaper relative to long-term growth
125%
1.5x
100%
Value is Attractive
Median: 40%
75%
51%
50%
25%
Growth is Attractive
0%
Russell 1000 Value
Russell 1000 Growth
1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019
Source: FactSet, Bank of America as of 9/30/19. The performance data quoted represents past performance, which is not an indication or a guarantee of future results.
Page 16
Beyond Beta Reframing Risk
RISK
• Beta is thought to be a good measure of risk but in practice it is backward looking in nature, making it a poor measure of potential losses ‒ At the tech bubble peak, the beta of technology stocks was less than one; the same was true of financials in early 2008 prior to the Global Financial Crisis
Below Market Risk at Height of Tech Bubble?
Below Market Risk Preceding the Mortgage Meltdown?
S&P 500 Technology Sector
S&P 500 Financial Sector
120%
40%
2.5
3.0
90%
20%
1.0
2.0
60%
0%
Beta
Beta
-0.5
1.0
30%
-20%
-2.0
0.0
0%
-40%
Relative Return
Relative Return
-30%
-60%
-3.5
-1.0
Source: FactSet. Beta calculated relative to S&P 500 on 12-month trailing basis. The performance data quoted represents past performance, which is not an indication or a guarantee of future results.
Page 17
The Downside of Downside Capture Reframing Risk
RISK
• Low downside capture is thought to reduce risk, but over reasonably long periods, strong secular growth can provide superior returns, even in down markets
Low Downside Capture Can Underperform Secular Growth in Both Bull and Bear Markets
Downside Capture
Annual Return
Performance During Bear Market (3 years ended 12/31/2009)
Performance During Bull Market (3 years ended 9/30/2019)
30%
-20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140%
120%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%
100%
Downside Capture
Downside Capture
80%
20%
60%
40%
10%
20%
Annual Return
Annual Return
0%
-2% -1%
0%
-20%
Electric Utilities Internet Retail
Telecom Software
Source: Morningstar. The figures presented are provided for illustrative purposes. They include examples of the performance of two industries with downside captures above and below 100%, respectively. Examples of such performance during a bull market and bear market are provided. Please note that using different industries or different time periods might have materially different results than those shown above. The performance data quoted represents past performance, which is not an indication or a guarantee of future results.
Page 18
Passive Problems? Reframing Risk
RISK
• The vast majority of passive investing allows relative performance to drive relative weighting changes, irrespective of fundamentals ‒ This can exacerbate problems such as in Tech in the late 1990s or in Financials prior to the Global Financial Crisis
Passive Proves Problematic at Points
40%
300
30%
250
Peak Weighting, Wrong Time
Peak Weighting, Wrong Time
Relative Performance
S&P 500 Financial Relative Performance
30%
S&P 500 Tech
200
20%
150
20%
100
10%
50
10%
S&P 500 Tech Weight
0%
-
0%
-50
S&P 500 Financial Weight
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: FactSet. The performance data quoted represents past performance, which is not an indication or a guarantee of future results.
Page 19
Not All Fundamentals Are Created Equally Reframing Risk
RISK
• Understanding the downside to sales, earnings, and cash flows in a difficult economic environment is key to understanding risk in portfolios ‒ Value stocks have often acted like sailboats that depend on the wind of economic activity, while Growth stocks enjoy a secular motor to help protect against volatility
Look for Stocks Where Fundamentals May Prove Resilient
S&P 500 Growth
S&P 500 Value
S&P 500 Growth
S&P 500 Value
20%
20%
0%
0%
-20%
-20%
-40%
-40%
Change in EPS
Change in EPS
-60%
-60%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Months After Beginning of 2001 Recession
Months After Beginning of 2008 Recession
Source: FactSet.
Page 20
Beating Economic Volatility? Reframing Risk
RISK
• Innovation can triumph over economic volatility
‒ History shows that there are areas of innovation and growth throughout recessions, depressions, and panics over the past 150 years*
‒ This may be why Growth stock fundamentals have held up better in recessions
U.S. Internet Ad Revenue
U.S. E-Commerce
U.S. Total Retail Sales
140
130
120
+30% Growth
110
100
90
80
Q208
Q308
Q408
Q109
Q209
Q309
Q409
Q110
Q210
Q310
Q410
Q111
Q211
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, PwC, Census Bureau. *See Alger’s white paper “The Enduring Force of Innovation.”
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The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
ECONOMY
The Good – Global Easing
• Countries around the world are loosening monetary policy
‒ This stimulus, which began only in the past few months, should make its way into the economy over the next year
Global Monetary Policy Tracker
10
8
Tightening
6
4
2
Global tightening has given way to global easing
0
-2
-4
(Easing) Index
-6
Easing
-8
Net Global Tightening /
-10
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jul-19
Apr-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Oct-16
Apr-17
Oct-17
Apr-18
Oct-18
Apr-19
Oct-19
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Source: Council on Foreign Relations. Global Monetary Policy Tracker compiles data from 54 countries to highlight significant global trends in monetary policy. The index ranges from -10, which indicates that all countries are easing, to 10, which indicates that all are tightening. Index weighted by share of global foreign exchange reserves .
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The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
ECONOMY
The Good – Data Improving
• Economic data points have begun to improve with lower interest rates boosting housing measures like home sales and refinancings while bank lending and money supply have also accelerated
‒ The result is economic data is coming in better relative to expectations
Bloomberg Economic Surprise Index
0.3
Positive Surprises
0.2
0.1
Economic data has begun to surprise to the upside
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
Negative Surprises
-0.4
-0.5
Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19
Source: Bloomberg as of September 2019. The Bloomberg Economic Surprise Index shows the degree to which economic analysts under- or over-estimate the trends in the business cycle. The surprise element is defined as the percentage (or percentage point) difference between analyst forecasts and the published value of economic data releases.
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The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
ECONOMY
The Bad – Confidence Waning
• Economic policy uncertainty is extremely high and is weighing on business confidence
• As a result, capital expenditure growth has moderated significantly
…Weighing on Capital Expenditures
Uncertainty Is High…
350
140
15%
300
120
10%
100
250
5%
Capex YoY
80
200
0%
60
-5%
150
40
-10%
100
20
50 Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index
-15%
0
-20 CEO Economic Outlook
-20%
0
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Source: Baker, Bloom & Davis, Business Roundtable, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and FactSet. Capex growth is U.S. real nonresidential gross private domestic investment. The Global Economic Policy Uncertainty index is a GDP-weighted average of national economic policy uncertainty indices for 20 countries, which is derived from own-country newspaper articles that discuss economic policy uncertainty in that month. The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index is based on a quarterly survey of member CEOs’ plans for hiring and capital spending, and their expectations for sales, over the next six months. Taking these factors together, the survey signals the direction of the U.S. economy.
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The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
ECONOMY
The Bad – Dragged Down?
• Weakness outside of the U.S. combined with significant trade issues are weighing on U.S. exports, threatening to drag down overall U.S. growth
Moderating International Industrial Production…
…and Trade Issues Driving Weak U.S. Exports
70
10%
8%
>50 Growing
60
6%
4%
China
50
2%
0%
Japan
40
-2%
<50 Declining
Europe
-4%
U.S. New Export Orders
30
Year-Over-Year Growth
-6%
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jan-18
Jan-19
Mar-18
Mar-19
Nov-18
Sep-18
Sep-19
May-18
May-19
Source: FactSet and Institute for Supply Management.
Page 25
The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
ECONOMY
The Ugly – Thinking About the Next Recession
• When the next recession eventually comes, will the Federal Reserve have enough ammunition to stimulate the economy? ‒ Experience in Japan and Europe has shown that it is difficult to stimulate economies with interest rates around the zero bound
Cut in Federal Funds Rate Around U.S. Recessions
8%
7%
Does the Fed have enough firepower?
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
1989-1992 2001-2003 2007-2008
??
Source: FactSet and Alger.
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Additional Insights
INSIGHTS
Smaller Capitalization Stocks Poised to Outperform
• Stronger fundamentals : Small caps are expected to grow much faster than large caps
• Compelling valuation : Small cap P/E multiple premium is low relative to history
• More levered to domestic economy : U.S. small caps have less exposure to international economies
Price-to-Earnings Russell 2000 / Russell 1000
Estimated Earnings Per Share Growth (Next 12-Months Estimate)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
23%
8%
Median
Russell 2000
Russell 1000
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Source: FactSet. EPS are consensus estimates and actual earnings per share might be materially different than shown.
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Additional Insights
INSIGHTS
Election by the Numbers
• Over the past half century in presidential elections involving incumbents, a strong correlation has existed between disposable income growth and percentage of votes won • Historically, real per capita disposable income growth of nearly 2% or more has been needed for reelection, which is currently where it is running
U.S. Reelection Campaigns
70%
Johnson
Nixon
60%
Reagan
Winning Campaigns
Clinton
Current
GW Bush
Obama
50%
% of Two-Party Vote
GH Bush
Losing Campaigns
Carter
40%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%
Real Per Capita Disposable Income Growth
Source: Strategas and Alger. Historical income growth is December to October of election year, annualized, while current data point is YoY growth for August 2019.
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Disclosure The views expressed are the views of Fred Alger Management, LLC (“FAM”) and Alger Management Ltd. (together with their affiliated entities “Alger”) as of October 2019. Alger has used sources of information which it believes to be reliable; however, this publication is not intended to be and does not constitute investment advice. These views are subject to change at any time and they do not guarantee the future performance of the markets, any security, or any funds managed by Alger. Risk Disclosures : Investing in the stock market involves certain risks, and may not be suitable for all investors. Growth stocks tend to be more volatile than other stocks as their prices tend to be higher in relation to their companies’ earnings and may be more sensitive to market, political, and economic developments. Past performance is not indicative of future performance . Investors whose reference currency differs from that in which the underlying assets are invested may be subject to exchange rate movements that alter the value of their investments. Important Information for UK Investors: The distribution of this material in the United Kingdom is restricted by law. Accordingly, this material is provided only for and is directed only at persons in the United Kingdom reasonably believed to be of a kind to whom such promotions may be communicated by an unauthorized person pursuant to an exemption under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the “FPO”). Such persons include: (a) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments and (b) high net worth bodies corporate, partnerships, unincorporated associations, trusts, etc. falling within Article 49 of the FPO. Most of the rules made under the FSMA for the protection of retail clients do not apply, and compensation under the United Kingdom Financial Services Compensation Scheme will not be available. Important Information for UK and EU Investors: This material is directed at investment professionals and qualified investors (as defined by MiFID/FCA regulations). It is for information purposes only and has been prepared and is made available for the benefit investors. This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction in which it is not authorised or permitted, or to anyone who would be an unlawful recipient, and is only intended for use by original recipients and addressees. The original recipient is solely responsible for any actions in further distributing this material and should be satisfied in doing so that there is no breach of local legislation or regulation. Important Information for US Investors: This material must be accompanied by the most recent fund fact sheet(s) if used in connection with the sale of mutual fund shares. Fred Alger & Company, LLC serves as distributor of the Alger mutual funds.
Certain products may be subject to restrictions with regard to certain persons or in certain countries under national regulations applicable to such persons or countries.
Alger Management, Ltd. (company house number 8634056, domiciled at 78 Brook Street, London W1K 5EF, UK) is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, for the distribution of regulated financial products and services. FAM and/or Weatherbie Capital, LLC, U.S. registered investment advisors, serve as sub-portfolio manager to financial products distributed by Alger Management, Ltd. Alger Group Holdings, LLC (parent company of FAM) and Fred Alger & Company, LLC are not an authorized persons for the purposes of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 of the United Kingdom (“FSMA”) and this material has not been approved by an authorized person for the purposes of Section 21(2)(b) of the FSMA. Fred Alger Management, LLC • 360 Park Avenue South, New York, NY 10010 • 800.992.3863 • www.alger.com
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Disclosure
The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index generally representative of the U.S. stock market without regard to company size. The S&P Growth and S&P Value indices measure stocks using three factors: sales growth, the ratio of earnings change to price, and momentum. S&P Style Indices divide the complete market capitalization of the S&P 500 into growth and value segments. The S&P Composite 1500 is an unmanaged index that covers approximately 90% of the U.S. market capitalization. The Russell 1000® Growth Index is an unmanaged index designed to measure the performance of the largest 1000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 1000 Value Index measures the performance of those Russell 1000 companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The Russell 2000 Growth Index is an unmanaged index generally representative of common stocks designed to track performance of small-capitalization companies with greater than average growth orientation. The Russell 2000 Value Index is an unmanaged index generally representative of the small-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe and measures the performance of Russell 2000 companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The Russell 1000 Index is a stock market index that tracks the highest-ranking 1,000 stocks in the Russell 3000 Index, which represent about 90% of the total market capitalization of that index. The Russell 2000 Index is a small-cap stock market index of the bottom 2,000 stocks in the Russell 3000 Index. The MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan Index captures large and mid cap representation across 4 of 5 Developed Markets countries (excluding Japan) and 9 Emerging Markets countries in the Asia Pacific region. TOPIX (Tokyo Stock Price Index) is a free-float adjusted market capitalization-weighted index that is calculated based on all the domestic common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange First Section. The STOXX Europe 600 Index is derived from the STOXX Europe Total Market Index. The STOXX Europe 600 Index represents large, mid and small capitalization companies across 17 countries of the European region. The STOXX Europe Total Market Index represents the Western Europe region as a whole. It covers approximately 95 percent of the free float market capitalization across 17 European countries. The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based benchmark that measures the investment grade, U.S. dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The indices presented are provided for illustrative purposes, reflect the reinvestment of dividends and do not assess fees and expenses that would have the effect of reducing returns. Investors cannot invest directly in any index. The index performance does not represent the returns of any portfolio advised by Fred Alger Management, Inc. and actual client results might differ materially than the indices shown. Note that past performance is no guarantee of future results. Comparison to a different index might have materially different results than those shown. Frank Russell Company (“Russell”) is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. Russell ® is a trademark of Frank Russell Company. Neither Russell nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the Russell Indexes and / or Russell ratings or underlying data and no party may rely on any Russell Indexes and / or Russell ratings and / or underlying data contained in this communication. No further distribution of Russell Data is permitted without Russell’s express written consent. Russell does not promote, sponsor or endorse the content of this communication.
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Fred Alger Management, LLC • 360 Park Avenue South, New York, NY 10010 • 800.992.3863 • www.alger.com
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