Capital Markets Summer 2022: Revealing Recession Patterns
I
It Starts With The Fed Revealing Recession Patterns
• Essentially every recession has been preceded by a rising Federal Funds rate
I
‒ Only three instances of “soft landings” in the mid-60s, mid-80s, and mid-90s
U.S. Federal Funds Rate Target
II
Recessions
Soft Landings
20%
18%
III
16%
14%
12%
IV
10%
8%
6%
V
4%
2%
0%
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
Source: Federal Reserve, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). FactSet as of June 30, 2022.
3
Made with FlippingBook - Online catalogs