Capital Markets Summer 2022: Revealing Recession Patterns

I

It Starts With The Fed Revealing Recession Patterns

• Essentially every recession has been preceded by a rising Federal Funds rate

I

‒ Only three instances of “soft landings” in the mid-60s, mid-80s, and mid-90s

U.S. Federal Funds Rate Target

II

Recessions

Soft Landings

20%

18%

III

16%

14%

12%

IV

10%

8%

6%

V

4%

2%

0%

1955

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

Source: Federal Reserve, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). FactSet as of June 30, 2022.

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