Capital Markets Summer 2022: Revealing Recession Patterns

I

The Leading Edge Revealing Recession Patterns

• The Leading Economic Index has typically declined preceding recessions ‒ Its year-over-year change typically bottoms two months before the recession ends

I

Leading Economic Index Year-Over-Year Change

II

Recessions

20%

15%

III

10%

5%

IV

0%

-5%

-10%

V

-15%

-20%

1972

1973

1975

1977

1978

1980

1982

1983

1985

1987

1988

1990

1992

1993

1995

1997

1998

2000

2002

2003

2005

2007

2008

2010

2012

2013

2015

2017

2018

2020

2022

Source: The Conference Board as of May 31, 2022, NBER. The Leading Economic Index (LEI) is a monthly index of 10 economic components used to predict the direction of global economic movements in future months.

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