Capital Markets: Winter 2019

Valuation Correction Offsets Earnings Growth ​ Performance

Total Return = Dividend Yield + EPS Growth +/- P/E Change

MSCI All Country World Index ex-USA

S&P 500

Dividend

EPS Growth*

P/E Change

Dividend

EPS Growth*

P/E Change

35%

20%

25%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

Sentiment Collapse

Sentiment Collapse

-10%

-15%

-25%

-20%

Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18

Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18

12- Month Total Return:

12- Month Total Return:

16%

33%

14%

1%

12%

22%

-4%

17%

21%

6%

2%

7%

19%

-10%

Source: FactSet as of 12/31/18. *Based on consensus estimates of next 12-month EPS. Actual earnings per share might be materially different than shown. MSCI ACWI ex-US performance based on local currency.

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