Capital Markets: Winter 2019

The Upside of Being Slow ​ Fundamentals

• Why has the current economic expansion lasted so long and when will it end?

‒ A big part of the answer is the depth of the recession that preceded it and the rate of the recovery thus far ‒ Economic recoveries of comparable length have had far more growth than the present one, suggesting a significant runway of economic expansion now

60%

1960

50%

1990

40%

1981

30%

Long runway to catch up?

1973

20%

1969

2001

Current

10%

0%

Real Cumulative GDP Growth

-10%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

Number of Quarters from Peak

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and Alger as of December 2018. Dates indicate beginning of measurement periods.

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