Capital Markets: Winter 2019
Fundamentals
Leading Indicators Suggest Continued Expansion
• The LEI historically leads S&P 500 EPS by 6-18 months • The increase in the LEI suggests EPS should continue growing
• Typically, changes in the Leading Economic Index (LEI) have preceded changes in economic growth • The rate of change of the LEI implies solid, albeit slowing, economic growth
15%
8%
$190
10%
6%
110
$170
5%
4%
Real GDP Growth YoY
100
$150
0%
2%
S&P 500 EPS
18 Month Lead
$130
-5%
0%
90
$110
-10%
-2%
$90
-15%
-4%
80
Leading Economic Index
-20%
-6%
$70
Leading Economic Index YoY
-25%
-8%
70
$50
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Source: FactSet, Conference Board. EPS estimates based on next 12-months consensus.
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